By Leo Varadkar
The programme for government is probably the most important document agreed by any
government.
I remember walking into my office on my first day as minister for transport, tourism and sport
in March 2011. I had the relevant sections in my pocket ready to present to my new
secretary-general, the department’s top civil servant. He was ahead of me and had already
prepared a detailed briefing on each point setting out what was in train already, what was
not, what would have to be done, what the pitfalls would be and a rough estimate of the
timeline and costs or savings involved.
If something is in the programme for government, it will probably happen; it has been agreed
by the coalition leaders, voted for by party activists and the Dail, and accepted by the civil
service as their to-do list. Or, at least, by the vast majority of them. If a minister wants to do
something that’s not in the programme, he or she will face an uphill struggle to secure
political support from all coalition partners and just as importantly a budget for it.
The programme for government published last week is essentially an amalgam of the Fine
Gael and Fianna Fail manifestos with some input from independents. It seeks to build on the
work of the last government — more new homes, more affordable childcare, income tax
reduction to take account of pay increases, more gardai, better access to healthcare and
fewer out-of-pocket charges, more investment in infrastructure, lower student fees, help for
carers, more pay-related benefits for workers, a definite start date for auto-enrolment
pensions, and the child poverty unit is retained. There is no reason why the two parties
should not approve it by overwhelming majorities within the next 48 hours. It is what they
campaigned for.
As ever, there is lots of ambiguous language that appears to mean more than it does —
consider, support, assess, examine, progress, explore, review, seek — and rather fewer
specific commitments with dates or numbers attached. Sir Humphrey will be happy: plenty of
leeway.
Absent the Greens, the new government promises to do things that had been frustrated by
their presence over the past four years including new roads, lifting the passenger cap at
Dublin airport, ratifying the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement,
energy security (including the possible introduction of a liquefied natural gas terminal if one is
deemed necessary), the use of artificial intelligence in policing, and strong support for
commercial farming.
At the same time the document is strong on renewable energy and climate, recommitting to
carbon tax increases and an average 7 per cent reduction in emissions every year, and
reaching net zero by 2050.
Rather than a commitment to enact the Occupied Territories Bill there is a promise to
progress legislation banning goods from illegal settlements. That’s not the same thing and is
unlikely to please anyone.
Unusually, the programme tells us what the government will do if the public finances get into
trouble — income taxes will rise in real terms, infrastructure investment will be protected and
public services will be maintained but not improved. This is smart. The two programmes I
helped to negotiate did not contain the words Brexit, pandemic or Ukraine. It makes sense to
expect the unexpected.
There is no commitment to the living wage or more sick days as promised by the last
government but it has not resiled from either policy. Unions and low-paid workers will worry
nonetheless. The hospitality sector will be happy with the 9 per cent VAT rate. Social liberals
will be reassured that there are sections on equality for women, LGBTQI+, racism, women,
drug use, workplace diversity, culture and nightlife that are broadly progressive. It stands in
stark contrast to the rollback on rights we are seeing now in North America and much of
Europe.
On Northern Ireland, there’s an extra €1 billion for the shared island unit and an increase in
staff, commitments to advocate for re-establishment of the Northern Ireland civic forum, on
reconciliation, research on the differences between the two jurisdictions, legacy and the
inclusion of students from the north in Erasmus+. It is, however, noticeably weaker than both
manifestos were. Rather than unification as a commitment or objective there is a reference
only to “unity of the Irish people”. There is no forum on reconciliation nor on what the future
constitutional arrangements of a new Ireland might look like. It’s likely that the impetus to
work towards and plan for unification will have to come from outside Leinster House.
The programme also talks about strengthened British-Irish relations. The government is
fortunate to start its term with a British counterpart that is even-handed on Northern Ireland,
wants a partner in Dublin and seeks a closer relationship with the EU. This hasn’t been the
case in almost 20 years. However, the Starmer government has had a rocky start and
opinion polls, for whatever they are worth, put Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK all
on about 25 per cent support each.
The next British general election is scheduled to happen before the next one here. The reset
in relations we are experiencing right now might suddenly turn again and this moment may
transpire to have been nothing more than a brief interlude at a time of extraordinary political
change. In short, the polls would indicate that Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage as prime minister no longer seems a remote possibility. A dramatic shift back to europhobia and towards English or British nationalism will have reverberations for Ireland and the north in particular.
We need to prepare for that possibility and with it an inevitable increase in support for
unification of north and south and even a renewed push for Scottish independence. These
sorts of events are not anticipated in the programme for government published last week but
nonetheless the civil service should begin a file.
Leo Varadkar is a former taoiseach and Fine Gael leader
This article first appeared in The Sunday Times on January 19, 2025. It is shared here exclusively for educational purposes.
